WIMBLEDON, N.D. — Spring has arrived early on the prairie west of Fargo. Some dirty snowbanks are all that remain behind the grain bin where Justin Sherlock is firing up an old tractor to dump feed into a truck.
Wearing jeans and a Carhartt hoodie, Sherlock is 37, with an easy grin.
"That tractor is older than I am, and it's probably one of the best-running machines on the farm," says Sherlock, who is also president of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association.
He grows mostly corn and soybeans on his family farm. This morning, a semi will haul his feed to a nearby grain elevator. From there, it's usually sent by rail to the Pacific Northwest, then shipped to China— except nothing is typical or certain today.
"Things are changing hour by hour," Sherlock says. "How do you operate a business that way?"
Starting this week, American farmers like Sherlock are getting hit with tariffs on food they directly sell to China, including soybeans, corn and wheat — as well as pork, chicken and beef. Those levies are in retaliation for tariffs President Trump put on Chinese goods coming to the United States.
In farm-dependent states like North Dakota, all of this has renewed concerns about a trade war.
Sherlock says that up until a few days ago, farmers had still hoped President Trump was using tariffs to negotiate. But now it feels chaotic. One minute they're on, then off, then one thing is exempted. Then there's a post on President Trump's Truth Social platform that American farmers should get ready to supply America, ending with "have fun."
"That really struck a lot of farmers, it was the wrong note," Sherlock says. "It has a lot of them questioning, is there a plan?"
There's a trickle-down effect from tariffs in farm states
Like so many other industries, North Dakota's $41 billion agriculture economy is dependent on a complex web of exports and imports.
Sitting in his idling pickup one afternoon, Sherlock watched as a Canadian Pacific train rumbled by the grain elevator in the small town of Wimbledon.
"I see grain cars. I see fertilizer cars that are heading back up to pick up fertilizer in Canada to bring it back to the U.S," he says.
Half of all the soybeans grown in the region are sold to China, and almost all of the fertilizer is brought in from Canada, which is also imposing tariffs in response to President Trump's.
For more than two decades now, American farmers have operated under global trade agreements, courtesy of carefully negotiated business relationships brokered over time, according to Greg Lardy, vice president for agricultural affairs at North Dakota State University in Fargo. That means there's no longer the processing capacity in the U.S. for all the crops that are grown here.
"And that's not a change that's going to happen in a matter of months; that takes years," Lardy says.
The big deal is that many farmers in the country are still recovering from a trade war with China in 2018 that left grain in the bins and sent prices tumbling. The first Trump administration paid out billions in farm subsidies to keep farmers afloat back then.
This spring, Justin Sherlock says he's in the red going into planting season — and worried he might not even get financing to farm.
"You can't take that to the banker and say, well, our political leadership must have a plan, so give me a loan," Sherlock says, chuckling somewhat sardonically.
And today, he adds, with federal agency budgets and staff being cut, no one knows for sure if there would even be another aid package.
Come for the tractor pull, stay for the economic outlook
A good place to take the pulse on the broader American farm economy right now is at the North Dakota Winter Show. Every year at this time, thousands of people descend on a huge show barn in Valley City. It's a sendoff to the brutal blizzards and a chance for neighbors to catch up over fried cheese curds and beers.
The smell of diesel hangs thick in the air during the popular tractor pull competition. There's also a rodeo, arts and craft stands, even a Wheels of Agriculture game show for kids.
Over at the trade show, Justin Stringer is the salesman at the Butler Machinery booth. The company sells tractors, combines and other farm equipment across the Dakotas. He says his customers are calling all the time, asking what the tariffs will do to prices.
Crop prices were already low and inflation already high. And now there are tariffs coming in from the factory, he says.
"It's, you know, how do we help our customers take less impact because we want to keep our customers strong and our economy strong. We know what the backbone of the country is," Stringer says.
People here are proud but also stressed. In North Dakota, where 1 in every 5 jobs is tied to agriculture, a fight over exports of just one or two crops trickles down into so many other parts of the farm economy.
So, going into planting season, Stringer says farmers are scratching their heads trying to figure out what crops will still pencil out.
"Are we gonna be more in the red, I mean, it's all you talk about pretty much when you go to the coffeehouse or the feed store," he says.
There is a glimmer of hope for farmers worried about a trade war
But it's not all bad news in early 2025.
At the winter show, cattle ranchers said they are fetching high beef prices due to record low herd sizes nationally. Closer to home, two large soybean processing plants recently opened in North Dakota. Since the 2018 trade war was a hard time, the idea is that these new crushing plants will give farmers a local buyer so they're not as vulnerable to the volatile export market.
"With the two processing plants we're going to need about 50% of the beans produced in North Dakota, to stay here in North Dakota," says Bill McBee, commercial manager of North Dakota Soybean Processors.
McBee's plant broke ground in the summer of 2022 and opened last fall. It operates around the clock and employs 75 people.
"The fact that we're here as a year-round supplier just helps alleviate the risk," McBee says, adding it could help shield the area if there's another prolonged trade war.
Some of the soybeans are processed into oil for biodiesel but most end up as hog feed. And because everything in modern agriculture is globally connected, a lot of the feed made at the plant is still for export.
North Dakota went big for Trump, but could stand to lose if the tariff battle persists
McBee says the current uncertainty isn't good for the markets. But he's hesitant to talk politics.
That was a popular refrain during interviews across the region.
North Dakota, with just under 800,000 people, is like one big, small town. Business and relationships are delicate. In some corners, like in much of America, there is now a deep distrust of mainstream media. Also, in a state where more than 67% of the electorate voted for Trump, some folks appeared worried about saying the wrong thing and facing retaliation.
One morning at a feed and fertilizer co-op, some agronomists and farmers on a coffee break talked about how tough things are and how uncertain everything feels. Royce Carlson said he's holding out hope that the tariffs won't have as bad an effect as many economists are predicting.
"We try to put ourselves in the best position to deal with worst case scenarios," he says.
The recent droughts have tested farmers more than trade wars, he says.
"I have hope, I really do, we've made it this far," Carlson says.
His message to Washington: Figure it out soon and keep our farmers whole.
This story is part of a series looking at how Trump's early actions are playing out across America produced by NPR correspondents Debbie Elliott and Kirk Siegler.
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