Republicans have the narrowest of majorities in the House of Representatives. Of the three dozen competitive districts this cycle, it could come down to just a critical few in determining which party will control the chamber and have say over what bills come up for a vote in the House next year.
"I think the race for Congress is effectively tied. This is on a knife's edge," said Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC. "We have clear assets. We have clear challenges. Ultimately, this will come down to a couple of districts in the end."
Those few races could determine how a president's agenda is, or isn't, enacted.
House Speaker Mike Johnson and Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries have been traveling to those competitive districts — many of which are in blue states like New York and California.
Where are the two parties competing?
Republicans are heavily contesting about 35 districts, with major defensive races in and around Los Angeles, districts in the New York City metro area, a few seats in Arizona, and Rep. Don Bacon's district in Nebraska, among others.
"Our majority lives and dies in blue states," Conston says. "Our ability to hold a lot of these key incumbents in California and New York will determine quite a bit of whether we have the majority or not."
On offense, Conston says CLF is keying in on Trump-won and Trump-leaning districts, nodding to seats in Scranton, Pa., Toledo, Ohio, the Denver suburbs, and Flint, Mich.
Courtney Rice, communications director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, says Democrats have 31 defensive races for members in competitive districts and roughly the same number of offensive opportunities in what they call "red-to-blue" districts.
"This spans the entire country — from New York, all the way over to California, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin — these traditional presidential battleground states. But we also have a lot of exciting offensive pickup opportunities in states where maybe there aren't other competitive races," she says, pointing to two districts in Iowa and one in Oregon that Democrats feel confident they can flip.
Trends both parties are watching
Conston points to Republicans' increasing inroads with Latinos as a trend to watch.
"I think the continued improvement of Republicans in Hispanic and more working class, union-heavy districts clearly indexes to where many of our best pickup opportunities are," he says.
Conston adds he's looking to see whether former President Donald Trump increases his margin in districts he previously won in Scranton, the Leigh Valley in Pennsylvania, and parts of Ohio.
"If he does in those more rural and working class, then that'll have a big impact for us," he says. "The other area that is a real open question is you have a group of marginal seats on the presidential side, districts that, say, Biden won by a point in 2020 and Trump narrowly carried in 2016. And I believe that a lot of the key House races in those places will go the way of the presidential. You have quite a few districts on the presidential side that are really on a knife's edge and which way they ultimately break will have a really big impact on our majority."
Rice adds the effect of abortion access as an issue post-Dobbs as a major motivating factor for women voters and will be a "key reason we win back the House."
"Women are pissed off and they have every right to be," she says. "We have seen women registering in record numbers to vote this election cycle. We have seen women outpacing men in early vote in a lot of our competitive districts."
Final messaging
"We've been so focused, depending on the district, on the impact of crime in and in policies that have led to increased crime, which is a visceral issue and affects whole swaths of people concerned about their communities," Conston says. "We have been focused on economic arguments with a clear view towards taxes in certain districts. We've focused on immigration, particularly with the that the context of how much these communities are being drained and overwhelmed by the migrant crisis."
Rice says in addition to the issue of reproductive rights, Democrats are messaging about effectiveness of governance.
"What we've seen from this Republican-led majority is nothing but chaos and extremism and dysfunction, and that's why they have the unfortunate moniker of being the least productive Congress since the Great Depression," she says. "And so when you look at the message that Democrats are closing on and talking to voters about in these last few days, it is really that contrast between the Republican majority that has done nothing for them and the possibility of a Democratic majority that would protect reproductive rights and protect abortion rights and lower costs and address the pocketbook issues that voters care about."
What they're watching
Conston says an open question remains how the suburbs will perform and whether Vice President Harris can expand on the 2020 results.
"She really needs to be able to make gains on that for her to win. If that were the case, that would certainly impact our map to the negative," he says.
Another question is the level of split ticket voting in districts that Trump carried last cycle with incumbent Democrats.
"One of the reasons House Democratic incumbents have been so successful is because they run their own races. They don't pay attention to what's happening at the national level in terms of politics, and they are very grounded in their communities," Rice says. "I think voters can see the difference between a local candidate or incumbent who works for them versus whatever is going on nationally."
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