Farmers and ranchers getting ready for planting season might also need to prepare for another year of drought.
Some parts of the Midwest and Great Plains are currently experiencing a combination of warm temperatures and low precipitation, which has worsened drought conditions, according to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor.
If that doesn’t change in the coming weeks, weather experts say it could further increase the severity of drought – which could have a significant impact for ranchers and farmers raising livestock and growing crops.
The recent drought conditions are “not particularly good news,” said Matthew Sittel, the assistant state climatologist at Kansas State University.
“We definitely have seen some increases here in just the last two weeks,” he said. “So it's concerning, obviously, that we've got the conditions that we do now.”
About half of the North Central U.S. region (which includes 20 states ranging from the Rockies to the Great Lakes) is experiencing moderate drought conditions or worse as of this month. That’s an increase of 18% compared to a year ago, according to a recent briefing from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its regional climate partners.
The persisting drought is likely due to a colder-than-normal winter with less rain and snow, as well as recent warm, dry and windy weather in the region, weather researchers said. Among the states that saw below-normal snowfall were Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and some parts of Iowa.
Although there is a potential for conditions to improve, Sittel and his colleagues expect drought to stick around along the Missouri River Basin, particularly in Nebraska and the Dakotas.
“We'll have to wait and see how this all plays out,” he said. “Because it's certainly possible that we get a heavy rain event in some part of this country that could improve conditions locally.”
Impact of ongoing drought
For the Nebraska panhandle, the last 12 months have already been “pretty rough,” said Eric Hunt, the assistant extension educator of agricultural meteorology at the University of Nebraska in Lincoln. About 75% of the state is currently experiencing drought conditions, ranging from moderate to extreme drought, according to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor.
“If the next two months aren’t good with moisture in parts of the panhandle, parts of Sandhills, this year is going to be very challenging, particularly for ranchers,” Hunt said.
Some Nebraska farmers, such as corn and sugar beet producers, can use irrigation to protect from drought conditions, but Hunt said that livestock producers could face challenges. Cool season grasses rely on spring moisture. As a result, he said, producers without access to irrigated fields or meadows with wetlands could see thin grazing lands, which would impact cattle herds.
“They are going to be facing an even more challenging year than they need if the moisture doesn't come,” Hunt said.
In Kansas, moderate and severe drought conditions are currently impacting more than half the state.
Greg Doering is a spokesperson for the Kansas Farm Bureau, which represents more than 30,000 people across the state. He said that many ranchers and farmers are concerned that drought will have a negative impact on their operations this year.
“‘Rain makes grain’ is the saying,” Doering said. “And we're going to need some rain here in the coming days, coming weeks, as we move into planting season.”
Last year, the agriculture industry and related sectors supported 13% of Kansas’ entire workforce, as well as an estimated $88.1 billion in output, according to the Kansas Department of Agriculture’s economist report.
“If our farmers and ranchers are experiencing drought conditions, that will have an impact on the farm income that they're able to bring in and, ultimately, have a potential loss to their operation,” said Kelsey Olson, the deputy secretary of the Kansas Department of Agriculture.
Could rain bring relief?
Recent rain has improved conditions in some states — like in Illinois. Conditions there aren’t as concerning yet, mostly because of favorable weather forecasts, according to Trent Ford, the state climatologist at the University of Illinois. About 40% of the state is abnormally dry, but only about 25% of the state is experiencing drought conditions, according to current data. Still, that could change, Ford said.
“Our outlooks are wetter than normal for the next few months,” he said. “No huge concerns. And as with most years, a lot of it will depend on how much rain we get in the summertime.”
But Missouri experts said persistent drought won’t go away, despite recent storms and severe weather. In October, former Missouri Gov. Mike Parson signed an executive order to declare a drought alert for the state until March 31. There are still drought conditions in more than 20% of the state.
“I can't believe we've had flooding events the past couple years, we've had a snowy winter now, but it just seems we can't get rid of drought,” said Zachary Leasor, the Missouri state climatologist and the director of the Missouri Climate Center.
Only time will tell if drought conditions could change, but Leasor said it continues to be an ongoing challenge for Missouri and surrounding states.
“Everybody was a little bit on the dry side, especially to our north and west,” Leasor said. “And so we're all kind of sitting here waiting on the forecast to see — is it going to be another drought year or not?”
The latest drought outlook covers a period of about three months, which will be updated in April. And while it could be months before the impact of drought is felt by farmers and ranchers, Kansas Department of Agriculture’s Olson remains hopeful.
“As a farmer's daughter, I'm always optimistic that there will be rain, and optimistic that the drought will diminish and that our farmers will be able to get their crops in the ground and our cattle will have plenty to eat this summer,” Olson said.
This story was produced in partnership with Harvest Public Media, a collaboration of public media newsrooms in the Midwest. It reports on food systems, agriculture and rural issues.
