As predicted, Election Day has kicked off the next phase of this Election Season — with multiple close races in the House yet to be decided and control of the Senate potentially not known for about a month with a Dec. 6 runoff in Georgia.
Here's where things stand, by the numbers (as of Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. ET):
The Senate: Republicans 48, Democrats 46, Independents 2, Uncalled 4
For control of the Senate, Democrats are +1 with their flip of the Pennsylvania Senate race. That means Republicans need to pick up two of the three undecided competitive races to take control of the Senate.
- Georgia: Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker (R) are headed to a Dec. 6 runoff because neither surpassed 50% on the ballot. Warnock appears to have narrowly missed getting there, reaching 49.4% with 86% of the vote in.
- Arizona: Incumbent Mark Kelly (D) leads Republican challenger Blake Masters (R) 51% to 47% but with just 67% of the vote in. Arizona had voting issues in its largest county, Maricopa, early in the day Tuesday, and likely won't finish counting votes until Friday. The race is unlikely to be decided until at least then. There's also an automatic recount that would get triggered if the margin is within 0.5 percentage points. It's not there, but the margin could very well get considerably tighter.
- Nevada: Adam Laxalt (R) leads incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by roughly 3 percentage points, or about 23,000 votes, with 77% of the voting in. A lot could change, as there is a substantial amount of vote left to count, including about 27,000 ballots still in heavily Democratic Clark County (Las Vegas), plus an unspecified number of dropbox votes there, as well as mail and dropped off ballots in Washoe County (Reno).
- Alaska: This is not a seat that would be a flip, because both candidates are Republicans, but incumbent Lisa Murkowski trails Kelly Tshibaka by just over 3,000 votes with more than 185,000 votes cast. Only 75% of the vote is in, so a lot will change.
The House: Republicans 207, Democrats 183, Uncalled 45
For control of the House, either party needs to reach 218 seats. Republicans need to win 11 more for control, or 24% of the remaining uncalled seats. When all is said and done, Republicans will need a net gain of 5 seats to take control. They are still on a path to do that, but with a likely smaller majority than they were anticipating.
Republicans have flipped 13 and are leading in 4 others for a total of 17.
Democrats have flipped 5 and are leading in 5 others for a total of 10.
- That's a net gain of R+8 currently.
- The range at this point appears to be about R+7 to 14, which would give them just a 2- to 12-seat majority.
NOTE: Please keep in mind that these numbers are fluid and will change as vote continues to roll in.
Democrats have an outside shot at holding the House at this point, but would have to see a shift in some races where Republicans are leading, but haven't yet been called.