Updated October 21, 2024 at 09:02 AM ET
PHOENIX — This election, voters in Arizona will decide whether to approve a new ballot measure that would beef up the power of local officials to enforce federal immigration law.
Proponents of the measure say the state needs to act after earlier this year becoming the busiest place in the country for border patrol encounters along its border with Mexico. But critics worry about the law’s overly broad language, as well as its economic harms.
The measure, called Proposition 314, would give local law enforcement the right to question, arrest, detain and prosecute anyone suspected of having crossed the Mexico-Arizona border between legal ports of entry.
The influx of immigrants into the U.S. between legal ports of entry has become one of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s primary attacks against his opponent, Vice President Harris.
But in Arizona — both a border state and a key swing state that could determine control of the White House — the debate is prompting more hand-wringing, informed by the reality on the ground.
“It's a bill that is born out of sheer exasperation and frustration with our federal government. Is it the best solution to this problem? It is absolutely not the best solution to this problem,” said David Rhodes, president of the Arizona Sheriff’s Association.
“But it is a solution that the people of Arizona, I believe, are going to pass because they are fed up,” said Rhodes, adding that “our federal government continues to absolutely fail us on this problem.”
Still, Rhodes, a Republican who serves as sheriff in Yavapai County north of Phoenix, has concerns with how much the measure, if enacted, could really do. Sheriffs would be some of the officers responsible for enforcing the measure.
“When you start talking about adding multiple patrols out in the vast, wide open desert — you start putting people out there, state resources, sheriff's deputies, you're going to need a significant increase in manpower to have any impact,” Rhodes said.
Arizona faces immigration pressures at the border
At the start of the year, Arizona became the busiest region for border patrol encounters, recording nearly 200,000 apprehensions in just the Tucson sector in the first four months. The migrants put pressure on town and county officials responsible for the intake and care of migrants.
Border crossings across the southwest did fall 55% by summer after an executive order by President Biden denied asylum claims for those crossing between ports of entry.
The rising rates of crossings in the spring and ongoing presidential election put Arizona back in the national spotlight as presidential candidates visited the border regions, and congressional leaders grappled with providing funding to border towns responsible for asylum processing.
Officials are looking for solutions.
If the ballot measure passes, Arizona voters would opt to follow Texas’ SB 4, a measure that also allows local law enforcement to enforce federal immigration law. The law is on pause while it faces legal challenges.
“Arizona wants to join Texas by stepping in and assisting the federal government in enforcing the immigration law,” said state Sen. John Kavanagh, a Republican and one of the authors of the ballot measure.
If passed, the measure would also discourage those who might be undocumented from applying for public benefits. It also includes provisions to further punish fentanyl sales that result in death.
But like Rhodes, GOP Yuma Mayor Doug Nicholls sees challenges enforcing a law that would become a mandate for his security forces.
“It creates a mandate for local governments to take care of these federal issues without giving local government any financial ability to actually execute those,” Nicholls said. “It needed more time to be developed with local governments to be as effective as the authors intended it to be.”
He worries that a mandate will require more training because his officers are not trained in determining citizenship or assessing documents in his border town.
“Who pays for it while they're being processed?” Nicholls said. “If it takes a day or two and they have to be in housing, you know, someone's covering that. Any time we take a suspect to the county jail, the county rightfully charges us for their time at the county jail.”
Nicholls warns that once a ballot measure passes, only voters can change it — a process that could be additionally cumbersome.
Concern about economic impacts
Some business groups also fret about the economic impact of the measure.
“Well first of all, we don’t follow Texas,” said Monica Villalobos, president of the Arizona Hispanic Chamber, speaking outside the state capitol. She says the measure does not specify that it will be enforced in one geographical area. Nor specify what probable cause could mean.
“We live in multigenerational households. We also live in mixed status households. And so when something happens to one family member who may or may not have documents, it happens to the entire family,” Villalobos later told NPR.
She warns that even if the law doesn’t immediately go into effect, it could have an adverse effect on Arizona’s reputation and residents' willingness to live there.
“That impacts the workforce. That impacts our relationship with law enforcement. And ultimately, it impacts our ability to grow our economy,” she said.
The economic concerns are not unfounded.
Fifteen years ago, during the fight over a previous restrictive border measure, Arizona saw boycotts of conferences and meetings held in the state that cost it over $100 million in lost revenue in just four months.
Over the following decade, the state’s undocumented population shrank — but so did employment numbers in sectors like construction, according to an analysis done in 2020 by the Arizona Republic.
Kavanagh pushed back against all these concerns.
“This law clearly states that a police officer must have probable cause that a person is crossing the border in between legal ports of entry. There is no way that you could create probable cause if you saw somebody in Phoenix or Tucson or Flagstaff,” Kavanagh said, adding that “for all practical purposes, [it] means the cops got to see the person crossing.”
Kavanagh adds that the state has $56 million for border enforcement, which would be available for this program. However, the measure itself does not apply to specific geographic areas, nor does it allocate funding.
The Grand Canyon Institute, a nonpartisan research outfit in Phoenix, estimates the proposal would cost $325 million annually.
Young activists call and knock for a “no” vote
Immigration advocates also worry the measure will bring Arizona back to the dark days of the so-called “show me your papers” law that was the strictest immigration measure in the country when it passed in 2010, leading to boycotts and economic harm before much of the law was ruled unconstitutional.
The measure known as SB 1070 authorized local law enforcement to require anyone suspected of being undocumented to provide proof of authorization — even at a regular traffic stop. The law was later ruled unconstitutional.
Earlier this month, nearly three dozen volunteers for the advocacy group Aliento gathered online and in person at a conference room in Phoenix to phone bank against the latest measure.
The crew gathered there has experienced Arizona’s whiplash of immigration laws. They feared for their parents during SB 1070. They successfully fought for in-state tuition for students as a part of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.
And now they hope to take down Proposition 314.
“We're taking one step forward and we're taking five steps back already,” said Daniela Chavira, who was involved in the effort for in-state tuition in 2022. “Every election is critical for my community, for my parents — who are also undocumented — and for our family, which is mixed-status.”
Advocates said that the local law enforcement provision is the most concerning.
Aliento’s goal for many weeks was to help register voters. Now, with early voting underway, they hope to get people to the polls while encouraging them to vote against the measure.
The group wants to mobilize 50,000 young and Latino voters this election — enough to be a decisive block in the state President Biden won by just over 10,000 votes. They said they are fighting voter fatigue and skepticism.
Marisa Maestas, another volunteer, said she is worried voters don’t know what is on the ballot, especially given Arizona’s lengthy list of ballot initiatives, and she wants to educate them about what’s at stake.
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