President-elect Donald Trump won widespread support in the farm-rich state of Kansas, but some agricultural producers worry his proposed tariffs could result in a trade war that hampers their already struggling industries.
On his first day in office, Trump said he wants to raise tariffs, which are taxes that U.S. companies pay on certain products that are imported into the country. If the incoming president follows through on his proposals, American businesses could face up to 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and 25% on products from Canada and Mexico — two of the nation’s top trading partners.
Those policies would impact soy, corn and wheat producers the most, though the effects could ripple throughout the economy.
Trump and his supporters see tariffs as a tool to boost domestic manufacturing and negotiate better trade deals. However, some Kansas farmers suspect the policies could leave them worse off overall.
“It’s scary,” said John Pracht, a soy, corn and cattle producer in Westphalia, Kansas. “It leaves us wondering as farmers what's going to happen to our prices for our commodities.”
Economists say tariffs can cause unpredictable and unwelcome outcomes. American consumers might end up paying more for imported goods to cover the additional fees.
Trading partners can also retaliate with tariffs of their own. The previous Trump administration launched a trade dispute in 2018 and 2019 by targeting imports of Chinese goods, especially steel — a key ingredient in much of the machinery that plants, reaps and processes crops.
Pracht said he saw costs for farm equipment, repairs and other inputs swell in recent years, and he partially blames trade policies. A 2022 USDA study found that retaliatory tariffs caused Kansas nearly $1 billion in expected lost trade per year.
And there’s reason to believe those effects could be repeated. Mexico’s president has already warned that a proposed 25% percent tariff on that country’s goods would not go unpunished.
To help offset the costs to farmers, the Trump administration distributed nearly $30 billion in aid to agricultural producers affected by retaliatory tariffs from China.
But some farmers view government bailouts as unreliable. As lawmakers pull together the next farm bill — another looming deadline that will affect programs like SNAP benefits and crop insurance — some Republicans in Congress say they want to limit that type of aid in the future.
“We’d just as soon not have to have that money. We'd like to make it from selling our crops,” Pracht said.
One problem among many
A Kansas committee on foreign trade recently considered the tariff debate. Lawmakers heard a motion by Democratic state Rep. Rui Xu to ask the state’s federal delegation to oppose tariffs that could harm the Kansas economy.
“I would imagine many of you in this room supported and are happy that President-elect Trump won the election. But bad policy is bad policy,” he said.
Republicans on the committee disagreed. Rep. Sean Tarwater argued tariffs at this stage are little more than a negotiating tool that may or may not be implemented as promised. He called Xu’s suggestion “a bad move to undercut what most of the United States has voted for.”
One of those voters was Damian Korte, a hay producer in south central Kansas. Between the economic effects of COVID-19 and environmental concerns, he said tariffs are just one variable among many that make his work difficult.
“There's so much more to worry about closer to home before the tariffs would take effect,” Korte said.
Trump’s policies represent business-minded leadership to Korte, who said his operation didn’t struggle from higher tariffs the same way others did. Over the last few years, nearby droughts have caused him more persistent trouble.
“It wouldn't have bothered me if I had a $5 tariff on a bushel of soybeans, because I didn't have a bushel of soybeans,” he said.
But a diverse array of farming organizations in Kansas have come out against proposed tariffs.
“American Agriculture depends on trade,” wrote Mark Nelson, director of commodities for the Kansas Farm Bureau.
Nelson predicted tariffs’ ability to promote U.S. production would be outweighed by negative side effects, such as decreased exports to other countries inflating domestic supply — resulting in lower prices paid to U.S. farmers.
Nick Levendofsky, executive director of the left-leaning Kansas Farmers Union, said he understands why some farmers support Trump despite concerns over tariffs.
“Frankly, the Democratic Party has lost the working class. They’ve lost rural America,” he said. He cited a widespread feeling that current economic conditions have to change one way or another.
“There are people who look at tariffs as, ‘We're being tough,’” Levendofsky said.
“But are they truly effective?,” he asked. “Not when China can say, ‘Well, guess what? We don't need your soybeans. We'll go to Brazil.’”
Zane Irwin reports on politics, campaigns and elections for the Kansas News Service. You can email him at zaneirwin@kcur.org.
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